7.6.5.1Vertical

Complex & Full-Conversion Refineries

Refineries with coking and deep conversion units maximizing light products.

Market snapshot

These figures describe Oil Refining & Petrochemicals (7.6.5), the segment that Complex & Full-Conversion Refineries sits within. They are not figures for Complex & Full-Conversion Refineries on its own.

Market size
~$941B
Growth
~10.1%CAGR (2017–22, nominal)
Companies
~732 firms
Firms by employee count

47% of firms have fewer than 20 employees: 343 micro-businesses, below most mandates.

The investable universe387 firms with 20+ employees
20–99
14237%
100–499
11028%
500+
13535%

Refining margins, not volumes, drove this: crack spreads reached records in 2022 while domestic refining capacity was actually smaller than in 2019. No new US refinery has been built in decades, and that scarcity is the whole investment case.

NAICS 324110, 324121, 324122, 324199, 325110. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Statistics of U.S. Businesses; U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census.

Business model & economics

Revenue model

Refined-fuel and petrochemical sales (crack-spread margins)

Key economics

Revenue per firm
$1,285,910,900
Employees per firm
134.2
Recurring revenue
Moderate

recurring fuel/chemical demand

EBITDA margin
Thin, highly cyclical with crack spreads
Capex intensity
High

Characteristics

  • Scale-driven: payroll is only 1% of revenue, so the cost base is assets, not headcount
  • Moderate strategic-buyer pool: 135 firms exceed 500 employees, so a scaled asset has buyers, but not many
  • Highly consolidated (~220 plants); refining majors.
  • Petrochemicals ride U.S. shale-gas/ethane advantage.
  • Renewable-diesel conversions and EV-transition questions.

NAICS 324110, 324121, 324122, 324199, 325110. U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Statistics of U.S. Businesses; U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Economic Census.

Geographic concentration

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaColoradoFloridaGeorgiaIndianaKansasMaineMassachusettsMinnesotaNew JerseyNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOklahomaSouth DakotaWyomingConnecticutMissouriWest VirginiaNew MexicoArkansasCaliforniaDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIowaKentuckyMarylandMichiganMississippiMontanaNew HampshireNew YorkOhioOregonTennesseeUtahVirginiaWashingtonWisconsinNebraskaSouth CarolinaIdahoNevadaVermontLouisianaRhode IslandPennsylvaniaTexasIllinois

Pennsylvania, Illinois and Texas. Refining concentration is an inheritance: capacity sits where it was built to serve mid-century industrial demand and near crude supply, and essentially none has been added since.

PennsylvaniaIllinoisTexas

U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 Statistics of U.S. Businesses (firms by state), NAICS 324110/324121/324122/324199/325110. Concentration shown by location quotient.

M&A deal context

Deal activityModerate

Who’s acquiring

  • Refining & integrated-energy majors
  • Petrochemical producers
  • Renewable-fuels & energy investors

What’s driving deals

  • Renewable-diesel and low-carbon-fuel conversions.
  • Petrochemical integration and feedstock advantage.
  • Refining consolidation and rationalization.

Find Complex & Full-Conversion Refineries acquisition targets

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